🔍 Why Every Product Decision Is Like a Detective's Case Theory (And Why That Matters) 🧩

👋 Reader,

Let me share something that might blow your mind 🤯: Every single product decision that is made is actually a prediction.

Think about it...

We are predicting that Action A will result in Outcome B.

• If we launch [x] feature → Then we will experience Y retention
• If our new marketing campaign lands → Then we will get new customers
• If our CEO adopts a PLG strategy → Then we will grow our business

The more accurately a business can forecast outcomes, the better off they are.

So, given this, it only makes sense that research should go beyond collecting data or validating intuitions and create models that enable product teams to understand what is likely to occur next.

So how do we do this?

By building testable case theories.

A case theory is a story that explains what happened in a case, why it matters, and what should be done about it.

Here’s the thing…

As a former detective, I learned that case theories aren’t just random guesses—they’re “likely event” stories based on evidence. It is these stories that are then used to build models that help solve crimes (and predict what future crimes might look like).

We developed case theories that had to be:

• Testable and evolving (like good evidence, they change with new information)
• Consistent with known facts (they can't contradict established truths)
• Predictive (they help us anticipate what might happen next)

🚨 Why it matters...

A product that fits your market today might be irrelevant tomorrow. An idea that failed last year might be tomorrow's breakthrough.

This is why we build models and stories that are:

1. Testable (through experiments or real-world evaluation)
2. Evolve as new evidence and information become available
3. Consistent with known facts
4. Predictive (they help us anticipate what might happen next)

Remember, the product that wins isn't necessarily the one that best serves consumer needs—it's the one that best fits the market's selection rules. Just like solving a crime isn't always about finding the most obvious suspect—it's about understanding the patterns and rules that led to the crime.

It is your job to help build a case theory grounded in evidence that helps the business make a future bet.

Final thought:

Your product strategy should be like a detective's case theory—constantly evolving, grounded in evidence, but ready to pivot when new information emerges.

Stay frosty,

/ari

Real Quick...

This is the part where I DO try to sell you something. If you want to learn how to use detective-grade investigation techniques to do great research fast, reply to this email or set up a call here, or if you are ready to jump in, click here.

914 Dakota Lane, Erie, Colorado 80516
​Unsubscribe · Preferences​