đź‘‹ Reader,
As a former metropolitan police detective turned product research expert, I’ve spent decades evaluating evidence—first in criminal investigations and now in understanding customers and markets.
While the stakes may be different, the fundamental principles of evidence evaluation remain remarkably similar.
Today, I’d like to share how my experience in law enforcement shapes my approach to gathering and analyzing evidence in the business world.
The Evidence Hierarchy: When Stakes Rise, Standards Must Follow
Think about a detective working a case. For a minor theft, we might feel comfortable relying on a witness statement and some basic observations. But for a major homicide? We need rock-solid forensic evidence, multiple corroborating witnesses, and often, irrefutable physical proof.
Why?
The higher the stakes, the more certain we need to be.
This same principle applies perfectly to business and product decisions. When you’re deciding on a low-risk decision, i.e., the color of a button on your website, you might be fine working from reasonable assumptions. But when you’re investing millions in a new product line? You need much stronger evidence to support that decision.
Understanding Data vs. Evidence
Before diving deeper, let’s establish something crucial: not all information is evidence, and not all evidence is equal. In my years wearing a badge, I learned that data is simply undefined facts and information floating around us. Evidence, however, is different. Evidence is facts and information confirming or refuting our theories and assumptions. This distinction is critical.
Think about a crime scene. Everything in the room is data—the furniture, the walls, the items on the shelves. But that broken window? The footprints in the dust? The fingerprints on the doorknob? Those pieces of data become evidence because they help prove or disprove our theories about what happened.
The Evidence Pyramid: From Assumptions to Proof
In my work at Customer Forensics, I teach organizations to think about evidence in levels of reliability. Let’s explore this hierarchy from bottom to top.
Unexamined Assumptions
We all carry around unexamined assumptions—they’re like the hunches detectives get based on years of experience. While these gut feelings shouldn’t be ignored, they’re the weakest form of evidence. We should exercise caution when making decisions based on assumptions.
Fermi Estimations
Named after physicist Enrico Fermi, these are educated guesses based on logical reasoning. In detective work, we might estimate the time of death based on various environmental factors. In business, you might estimate market size using logical deduction. While more reliable than pure assumptions, they’re still just sophisticated guesses.
Empirical Observations
This is where evidence starts getting more reliable. These are things we can actually see and document. Just as a detective documents the position of evidence at a crime scene, researchers observe real customer behaviors and market patterns. These observations form the foundation for stronger evidence.
Corroborated Evidence
In police work, we love it when multiple independent sources confirm the same fact. The same principle applies to customer and UX research. When different data sources, customer interviews, and market analyses all point to the same conclusion, our confidence level increases significantly.
Insights
Insights emerge when we connect multiple pieces of evidence to reveal deeper truths. Like solving a crime by connecting seemingly unrelated clues, business insights come from synthesizing various pieces of evidence into meaningful patterns.
Experiments and Real-World Testing
The strongest form of evidence comes from experiments and real-world testing. Just as forensic scientists conduct controlled tests to verify theories, businesses should test their assumptions in real market conditions. This provides the highest level of certainty.
Applying Detective-Style Evidence Standards
When I train product teams, I emphasize the importance of matching evidence standards to risk levels. For low-risk decisions, using Fermi estimations or empirical observations might be sufficient. But for high-stakes decisions, you need to move up the evidence hierarchy.
Consider a murder investigation. We wouldn’t charge someone based on assumptions or educated guesses. We need multiple forms of corroborated evidence, forensic proof, and often, experimental verification of our theories. Similarly, when making million-dollar business decisions, you need evidence that would stand up in the court of market reality.
Conclusion: Building Your Case
Just as a detective builds a case piece by piece, business leaders must build their market understanding through increasingly reliable forms of evidence.
Start with your assumptions and theories, but don’t stop there. Gather empirical observations, seek corroboration, develop insights, and whenever possible, test your conclusions in real-world conditions.
Remember: the higher the stakes, the stronger your evidence needs to be.
Whether you’re solving crimes or understanding markets, this principle never changes. By applying these detective-style evidence standards to your business decisions, you’ll build stronger cases for your strategies and make more confident, well-supported decisions.
The next time you’re faced with a major business decision, ask yourself: “Would this evidence stand up in court?” If not, you might need to dig deeper and gather stronger proof before proceeding. After all, in business, as in detective work, the quality of your evidence often determines the quality of your outcomes.
Stay frosty,
/ari
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